counterfactual theory of causation

PDF Event Causation: the Counterfactual Analysis Counterfactuals are subjunctive conditional claims in the form "if X were the case, then Y would be the case" or "if it had been the case that p, then it would have been the case that q" ( Watson 2019). Obviously, in defending my own counterfactual theory, I am also implicitly arguing that counterfactual approaches to causation in general have the resources to capture its important features. It is . 2020 Apr;123(2):371-394. doi: 10.1177/0033294118816945. causation. With a counterfactual theory—see, e.g., Lewis (1973, 2004)—to say that an event C is a cause of E is to say that C and E occurred but, had C not occurred, E would not have occurred either. The counterfactual analysis of causation became a focus of philosophical debate after the 1973 publication of the late David Lewis's groundbreaking paper, "Causation," which argues against the previously accepted "regularity" analysis and in favor of what he called the "promising alternative" of the counterfactual analysis. PDF THEORY AND METHODS Estimating causal effects Second, CTCs are perceived to offer the promise of explaining the unclear notion of causation, in terms of the (allegedly) clearer and better understood notion of counterfactual dependence. Mental Causation: A Counterfactual Theory | The ... To build a theory from this observation, Lewis had three major tasks. The best-known counterfactual analysis of causation is David Lewis's (1973b) theory. De facto dependence is a theory . First, CCT traces the apparent contextual shifts in our causal attributions to shifts in the counterpart relation which obtains in those contexts. Mental Causation: A Counterfactual Theory | The ... Obviously, in defending my own counterfactual theory, I am also implicitly arguing that counterfactual approaches to causation in general have the resources to capture its important features. PDF COUNTERFACTUALS AND CAUSAL REASONING - Princeton The problem is that counterfactual definitions of causation identify as a cause anything that could have prevented an effect but that did not actually occur, which is a highly counterintuitive result. To build a theory from this observation, Lewis had three major tasks. PDF Getting Counterfactuals Right: The Perspective of the ... Causation and Counterfactuals | The MIT Press A wide variety of reasons is given in support for the conclusion that not only is causation not to be identified with counterfactual dependency, but that such dependency is also not either a necessary or a sufficient condition for causation. This paper argues that a counterpart-theoretic treatment of events, combined with a counterfactual theory of causation, can help resolve three puzzles from the causation literature. Mental causation—the mind's causal interaction with the world, and in particular, its influence on behavior—is central to our conception of ourselves as agents. DOC Counterfactual theories of causation of the sort presented ... But they also raise issues that are directly relevant to empirical psychology. Counterfactual theories of causation of the sort presented in Mackie, 1974, and Lewis, 1973 are a familiar part of the philosophical landscape. Definition 4 (Loewer's Counterfactual Theory of Information) State s carries the information that a is F, given background conditions g, just in case, given g, if s were to obtain, a would have to have been F. Even this theory of information requires several elaborations to furnish a plausible account of mental content. Yablo's (2002) attempt came in the form of the de facto dependence theory of causation, which holds that e de facto depends on c if had c not occurred, and had other factors been held fixed, then e would not have occurred. Where the antecedent of the conditional is counter to the facts, and the consequent describes how the world WOULD HAVE BEEN had the antecedent obtained. A Counterfactual Analysis of Causation: Did the party Kill Bill? One philosophical approach to causation sees counterfactual dependence as the key to the explanation of causal facts: for example, events c (the cause) and e (the effect) both occur, but had c not occurred, e would not have occurred either. sequent. This paper will present a difficulty for the counterfactual theory of event causation. The basic idea of counterfactual theories of causation is that the meaning of causal claims can be explained in terms of counterfactual conditionals of the form "If A had not occurred, C would not have occurred". This account draws on the difference-making ideas of causation, including Lewis's classical counterfactual theory as well as the more recent causal modeling approaches. The counterfactual theory of causation has been a central contribution to 20th century metaphysics. The best known counterfactual analysis of causation is David Lewis's (1973b) theory. Peter Menzies - 2008 - Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy. emending the counterfactual account of causation in order to best shore up the theory. Yablo's (2002) attempt came in the form of the de facto dependence theory of causation, which holds that e de facto depends on c if had c not occurred, and had other factors been held fixed, then e would not have occurred. 4,10,13-16 These developments were paralleled by more extensive analysis of counterfactual reasoning by philosophers.17-20A comprehensive review of causality theory is provided by Pearl,15who shows how structural-equation models and graphical causal models (causal Since then, counterfactual theories of causation have risen and regularity theories have more and more fallen into disuse. This chapter examines the counterfactual theory of causation, applying the possible world conception of counterfactuals. The best known and most thoroughly elaborated counterfactual theory of causation is David Lewis's theory in his (1973b). The ambiguity in the title thus accurately reflects the content of the present paper. If the difficulty is fatal, we have three options. One of the chief motivations for counterfactual theories of causation (Lewis 1973a) is the link between counterfactual claims and causal claims on the level of truth conditions. Y counterfactually depends on X just in case Y would not have existed (ob tained, occurred) if X had not existed (obtained, occurred). De facto dependence is a theory . The ambiguity in the title thus accurately reflects the content of the present paper. We suggest . One of the chief motivations for counterfactual theories of causation (Lewis 1973a) is the link between counterfactual claims and causal claims on the level of truth conditions. Hume's notion of causation is his regularity theory. Counterfactual accounts of causation aim to analyze causation in terms of counterfactual dependence. But here is a crudely simplified summary. First, many find a brute intuitive appeal in the idea that counterfactuals are connected to causation in a way that makes them apt to explain causation. Example of a Counterfactual Conditional. Kroedel's specific version of the counterfactual theory of causation (in conjunction with his preferred theory of events and various proposals about how to read counterfactual conditionals) is too sophisticated to spell out in a short review. As is well-known, David Lewis' counterfactual theory of causation is subject to serious counterexamples in 'exceptional' cases. Counterfactual Theories of Causation First published Wed Jan 10, 2001; substantive revision Mon Feb 10, 2014 The basic idea of counterfactual theories of causation is that the meaning of causal claims can be explained in terms of counterfactual conditionals of the form "If A had not occurred, C would not have occurred". What has not received due attention in the literature so far is that Lewis' theory fails to provide necessary and sufficient conditions for causation in 'ordinary' cases, too. 2. there is stepwise counterfactual dependence between C and E, C stands in R to E. A very simple and elegant account of causation could then take either dependence or stepwise dependence to be necessary for causation, and hold that C is a cause of E iff C stands in R to E. Call this the 'simple account'. Counterfactual Theories L. A. Paul The Oxford Handbook of Causation Edited by Helen Beebee, Christopher Hitchcock, and Peter Menzies Abstract and Keywords Counterfactual analyses have received a good deal of attention in recent years, resulting in a host of counterexamples and objections to the simple analysis and its descendants. The best known and most thoroughly elaborated counterfactual theory of causation is David Lewis's theory in his (1973b), which was refined and extended in articles subsequently collected in his (1986a). 4, 5. counterfactual dependence as the key to such explanation or reduction. As is well-known, David Lewis' counterfactual theory of causation is subject to serious counterexamples in 'exceptional' cases. We argue for a theoretical link between the development of an extended period of immaturity in human evolution and the emergence of powerful and wide-ranging causal learning mechanisms, specifically the use of causal models and Bayesian learning. Finally, it results in practical algorithms for solving some of the most critical and dif- cult causal problems that have challenged data analysts and experimental David Lewis's counterfactual theory of causation (Lewis, 1973a) starts with the observation that, commonly, if the cause had not happened, the effect would not have happened. First, there has been a resurgence of interest in the counterfactual theory of causation, given its best-known formulation by David Lewis.2 Second, there has been increasing philosophical interest in the techniques of causal modeling developed and employed within fields such as Further refinements used to enjoy popularity until David Lewis (1973) criticized the regularity theory and proposed an analysis of causation in terms of counterfactuals (see the entry on counterfactual theories of causation). Example of a Counterfactual Conditional 'If you had not been wearing a seat-belt, you would have been dead.' theory of rationality must account for the astonishing ease with which humans comprehend, derive and communicate counterfactual information. Counterfactual Theories of Causation. He does so immediately after giving neces sary and sufficient conditions for one event's causing another.2 One A defender of a counterfactual theory of causation will likely think that this temporal asymmetry in causation reflects an asymmetry in counterfactual dependence: while the future depends counterfactually on the past and present, the past is not counterfactually dependent on the present and future. Many solutions of this problem appeal to normative, epistemic, pragmatic, or metaphysical considerations. for statistical analysis of causation. 'If you had not been wearing a seat-belt, you would have been dead.'. We argue for a theoretical link between the development of an extended period of immaturity in human evolution and the emergence of powerful and wide-ranging causal learning mechanisms, specifically the use of causal models and Bayesian learning. From this starting point ideas proliferate in a vast profusion. But here is a crudely simplified summary. The counterfactual analysis of causation became a focus of philosophical debate after the 1973 publication of the late David Lewis's groundbreaking paper . This chapter examines the counterfactual theory of causation, applying the possible world conception of counterfactuals. What has not received due attention in the literature so far is that Lewis' theory fails to provide necessary and sufficient conditions for causation in 'ordinary' cases, too. First, the relata of causal relations are events. A counterfactual account of causation provides a straightforward explanation of this datum: causal relationships consist (at least partly) in certain patterns of counterfactual dependencies, and to ask whether is a cause of X Y is therefore (at least in part) to ask whether certain counterfactuals hold. Counterfactual Conditional. The true potential of the counterfactual approach to causation did not become clear until counterfactuals became better understood through the development of possible world semantics in the early 1970s. David Lewis defended the simple . In response to doubts about the theory's treatment of preemption, Lewis subsequently proposed a fairly radical revision of the theory. David Lewis offers a counterfactual analysis of causation, limiting his analysis to causation between particular events.1 Exactly what Lewis is analyzing is revealed by the point at which he announces his analysis to be complete. Counterfactual analyses, on the other hand, say that "x caused y" means something to the effect that if there hadn't been x there wouldn't have been y. There is also a link between these two kinds of claims at the level of empirically informed causal judgements. Hume explains his regularity theory in two ways: (1) "we may define a cause to be an object, followed by another, and where all the objects similar to the Analyses of token-causation have become popular in the last thirty years, especially since the development in the 1970's of possible world semantics for counterfactuals. The counterfactual conditional. We suggest . Counterfactual Thinking, Causation, and Covariation in Mock Juror Assessments of Negligence: Twenty-Five Years Later Psychol Rep . In this book, Thomas Kroedel develops a novel account of mental causation, allegedly available to both nonreductive physicalists and naturalistic dualists. David Lewis's counterfactual theory of causation (Lewis, 1973a) starts with the observation that, commonly, if the cause had not happened, the effect would not have happened. In particular, the theory suffers from the 'problem of large causes'. This book is rich, engaging, and clearly written. emending the counterfactual account of causation in order to best shore up the theory. There is also a link between these two kinds of claims at the level of empirically informed causal judgements. The counterfactual conditional. Mind-world interaction is taken for granted in everyday experience and in scientific practice. The counterfactual analys is of causation and the causal account of counterfactuals . Section 1 begins with a working definition of counterfactual conditionals ( §1.1 ), and then surveys how counterfactuals feature in theories of agency, mental representation, and rationality ( §1.2 ), and how they are used in metaphysical analysis and scientific explanation ( §1.3 ). Kroedel's specific version of the counterfactual theory of causation (in conjunction with his preferred theory of events and various proposals about how to read counterfactual conditionals) is too sophisticated to spell out in a short review. This account draws on the difference-making ideas of causation, including Lewis's classical counterfactual theory as well as the more recent causal modeling approaches. 1.1 The Importance of Mental Causation. Counterfactual Theories of Causation First published Wed Jan 10, 2001; substantive revision Tue Oct 29, 2019 The basic idea of counterfactual theories of causation is that the meaning of causal claims can be explained in terms of counterfactual conditionals of the form "If A had not occurred, C would not have occurred". A wide variety of reasons is given in support for the conclusion that not only is causation not to be identified with counterfactual dependency, but that such dependency is also not either a necessary or a sufficient condition for causation. In counterfactual conditionals, the antecedent is false in the actual . Although I have . In this book, Thomas Kroedel develops a novel account of mental causation, allegedly available to both nonreductive physicalists and naturalistic dualists. details. As the debate shifted from the ontological issue of what causation is to practice oriented questions, such as causal inference and the normative dimension of reasoning, counterfactuals continue to play . The basic idea of counterfactual theories of causation is that the meaning of causal claims can be explained in terms of counterfactual conditionals of the form "If A had not occurred, C would not have occurred". Such theories are typically advanced primarily as accounts of the metaphysics of causation. The paradigm examples of causation, so advocates of this approach tell us, are examples in which events c and e—the cause and its effect—both occur, but: had c not occurred, e would not have occurred either. 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